MINVikings
0-1
11
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
028
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
0
0
8
11
Colts
0
13
3
10
26
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
177
354
Total Plays
48
67
Yards / Play
3.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.06
Passing Yards
95
203
Comp/Att
11/26(42%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.11
Rushing Yards
82
151
Rush Attempts
19
40
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
24
Passing 1st downs
5
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
22%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.29
-4.42
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-3.70
-2.81
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
45
93
Penalty EPA
-5.96
-11.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
Vikings+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
+7.9
Final Difference
43.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
8
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Colts Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
10
9
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
30
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U