MINVikings
6-2
38
TBD
FedExField
44°F
4 mph
30
WASCommanders
4-4
TBD
FedExField
44°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
21
7
3
38
Commanders
10
7
3
10
30
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
394
Total Plays
60
73
Yards / Play
6.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
313
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.07
Rushing Yards
102
81
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
67%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
5
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.81
-4.79
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-2.09
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-1.13
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-0
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+42.1
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.7
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+49.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-52.2
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-52.2
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
10
22
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
26
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
6
9
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
14
4
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
6
12
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U