MINVikings
1-2
23
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
79°F
6 mph
21
PHIEagles
2-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
79°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
8
3
3
17
Eagles
0
3
3
15
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
366
Total Plays
61
56
Yards / Play
6.1
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.12
Passing Yards
298
283
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.02
Rushing Yards
77
83
Rush Attempts
23
18
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
36%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
25%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.18
-16.15
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-28
Sack EPA
-1.31
-14.71
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
23
52
Penalty EPA
-2.89
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+66.3
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+27.2
Home QB Adjustment
+46.3
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+46.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
20
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
32
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
22
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
25
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
20
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Eagles Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
10
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
3
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
22
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
12
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U