MINVikings
9-2
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
09
ATLFalcons
7-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
0
7
14
Falcons
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
275
Total Plays
63
51
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.12
Passing Yards
207
--
Comp/Att
25/30(83%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.01
Rushing Yards
105
102
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-4.82
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-6.31
-5.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
Falcons-2.0
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+66.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+21.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-21.0
Market Regression
-1.2
Final Difference
64.2
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-21.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
20
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
21
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
11
2
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
24
12
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U