MINVikings
6-9
37
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
035
DETLions
5-10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
14
10
6
37
Lions
6
10
13
6
35
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
508
417
Total Plays
74
56
Yards / Play
6.9
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.26
Passing Yards
383
288
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.25
Rushing Yards
125
129
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
21
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+3.68
-4.39
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-5
Sack EPA
-5.08
-1.52
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
-9.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model63.4%
Spread Pick
Vikings-3.0
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-23.3
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+63.7
Final Difference
-95.2
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
32
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
28
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
9
32
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
10
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
22
RZ Efficiency
6
31
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27
EPA
EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
9
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U