MINVikings
1-5
28
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
23 mph
22
GBPackers
5-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
23 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
14
0
28
Packers
7
7
0
8
22
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
402
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
6.6
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.15
Passing Yards
151
291
Comp/Att
11/14(79%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.86
+0.25
Rushing Yards
173
111
Rush Attempts
34
25
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-0.95
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-1.51
-0.95
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
36
85
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-10.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+0.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
8
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
29
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
19
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
27
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
5
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
1
9
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U