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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ panthers week 6, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-3
34
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
7 mph
28
CARPanthers
3-2
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
6
6
13
3
6
34
Panthers
7
3
1
11
0
22

Spread

MIN logo
-2

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
571
308
Total Plays
86
69
Yards / Play
6.6
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.19
Passing Yards
--
190
Comp/Att
33/49(67%)
17/42(40%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.52
Rushing Yards
198
118
Rush Attempts
37
23
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.86
-15.82
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-9.64
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
98
28
Penalty EPA
-10.25
-3.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model48.2%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
51.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
12.2
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
12/06
-0.6
42
12/13
-2.8
25
12/20
1.7
56
12/25
5.8
82
01/03
5.6
81
09/12
4.9
83
09/19
6.8
91
09/26
8.7
94
10/03
-5.9
15
10/10
-1.4
43
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
12/06
-1.4
34
12/13
-8.1
6
12/20
2.3
62
12/27
-3.1
23
01/03
-3.5
22
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67
10/10
-10.3
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Vikings logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
10
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
18

EPA

EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
12
12
EPA / Rush
26
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
5
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
18
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Panthers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26

EPA

EPA / Play
32
15
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
17
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
11
RZ Efficiency
25
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
3
W
L
P
12/13
-12
L
L
U
12/20
-6
L
L
O
12/25
-19
L
L
O
01/03
2
W
L
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O
09/19
-1
L
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-7
L
L
U
10/10
2
W
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/23
15
W
W
U
10/03
-8
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U