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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ saints week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-8
33
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
52
NOSaints
10-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
13
6
33
Saints
14
10
7
21
52

Spread

NO logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
364
583
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
6.0
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.40
Passing Yards
274
--
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.39
Rushing Yards
90
264
Rush Attempts
17
45
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
25
36
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
21
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
100%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
5
6
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.15
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.89
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
38
Penalty EPA
-2.34
-6.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,737
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
-11.0
Final Difference
213.9
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
10/11
-1.6
32
10/18
-0.9
38
11/01
-0.6
41
11/08
1.5
54
11/16
3.6
71
11/22
5.5
80
11/29
7.1
88
12/06
-0.6
42
12/13
-2.8
25
12/20
1.7
56
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
09/13
-0.8
40
09/21
1.8
57
09/27
7.9
91
10/04
-1.2
36
10/12
3.1
68
10/25
8.1
92
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
7.9
91
11/15
-6.0
11
12/20
-1.6
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3

EPA

EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
9
5
EPA / Rush
8
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27

EPA

EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
6
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
6
9
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
5
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-1
L
W
U
10/18
-17
L
L
O
11/01
6
W
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
1
W
L
O
12/06
3
W
L
P
12/13
-12
L
L
U
12/20
-6
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
35
W
W
U
11/15
14
W
W
U
11/22
15
W
W
U
11/29
28
W
W
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
O