MINVikings
6-8
33
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
052
NOSaints
10-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
13
6
33
Saints
14
10
7
21
52
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
583
Total Plays
61
73
Yards / Play
6.0
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.40
Passing Yards
274
--
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.39
Rushing Yards
90
264
Rush Attempts
17
45
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.23
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
36
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
21
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
100%
86%
Red Zone Conversions
5
6
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.15
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.89
--
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
20
38
Penalty EPA
-2.34
-6.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model77.4%
Spread Pick
Saints-6.5
Expected Value
+18.7%
Cover Probability
62.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,737
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
-11.0
Final Difference
213.9
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
9
5
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
6
9
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U