MINVikings
0-3
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
0-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
7
7
31
Texans
0
6
10
7
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
386
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
6.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.05
Passing Yards
248
290
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.22
Rushing Yards
162
96
Rush Attempts
40
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
14
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
42%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
80%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.36
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-4.78
-3.15
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-6.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
Vikings+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-13.7
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
37.5
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
27
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
8
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
2
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
29
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Texans Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
23
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
2
9
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U