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  4. 2013
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
142323rd
Point Diff / Game
-5.625th
Net EPA / Play
-0.10627th

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO@
L
17-23
-6
+3.5
L
-10
2
LAR logo
LAR
W
31-24
+7
-4
W
0
3
MIA logo
MIA@
L
23-27
-4
+3
L
-5
4
NE logo
NE
L
23-30
-7
-3
L
-5
5
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
28-30
-2
-10
L
-3
6BYE WEEK
7
TB logo
TB
W
31-23
+8
-6.5
W
-3
8
ARI logo
ARI@
L
13-27
-14
+2.5
L
-44
9
CAR logo
CAR@
L
10-34
-24
+9
L
-36
10
SEA logo
SEA
L
10-33
-23
+3.5
L
-14
11
TB logo
TB@
L
28-41
-13
+2
L
-26
12
NO logo
NO
L
13-17
-4
+7.5
W
14
13
BUF logo
BUF@
W
34-31
+3
+5
W
6
14
GB logo
GB@
L
21-22
-1
+3.5
W
-0
15
WAS logo
WAS
W
27-26
+1
-5.5
L
-20
16
SF logo
SF@
L
24-34
-10
+14
W
23
17
CAR logo
CAR
L
20-21
-1
+6
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.12
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.16
30th
EPA / Rush
+0.03
29th
Sack EPA
-4.88
26th
Turnover EPA
-6.02
19th
Point Differential
-5.6
25th
Points For
22.1
20th
Points Against
27.7
27th
Total Yards
343.3
16th
Passing Yards
234.3
9th
Rushing Yards
77.9
32nd
Total Yards Allowed
379.4
26th
Passing Allowed
188.7
11th
Rushing Allowed
135.8
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
5th
4th Down
43%
21st
Red Zone
52%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
46%
32nd
4th Down
64%
27th
Red Zone
58%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
19th
Created
1.4
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
19th
Created
0.6
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
17th
Created
0.8
5th