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BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2013 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
142125th
Point Diff / Game
-3.122nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.03922nd

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NE logo
NE
L
21-23
-2
+10
W
9
2
CAR logo
CAR
W
24-23
+1
+3.5
W
0
3
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
20-27
-7
+2.5
L
-17
4
BAL logo
BAL
W
23-20
+3
+3.5
W
-4
5
CLE logo
CLE@
L
24-37
-13
+3.5
L
-93
6
CIN logo
CIN
L
24-27
-3
+6
W
20
7
MIA logo
MIA@
W
23-21
+2
+6
W
23
8
NO logo
NO@
L
17-35
-18
+10.5
L
-22
9
KC logo
KC
L
13-23
-10
+5
L
76
10
PIT logo
PIT@
L
10-23
-13
+3
L
-9
11
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
37-14
+23
+2
W
21
12BYE WEEK
13
ATL logo
ATL
L
31-34
-3
-5
L
-3
14
TB logo
TB@
L
06-27
-21
+3
L
-29
15
JAX logo
JAX@
W
27-20
+7
-4
W
-37
16
MIA logo
MIA
W
19-00
+19
51
17
NE logo
NE@
L
20-34
-14
+7
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.08
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.16
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.02
9th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
8th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
17th
Sack EPA
-4.91
27th
Turnover EPA
-7.65
12th
Point Differential
-3.1
22nd
Points For
21.2
22nd
Points Against
24.3
20th
Total Yards
338.4
19th
Passing Yards
157.4
29th
Rushing Yards
144.2
2nd
Total Yards Allowed
333.5
10th
Passing Allowed
183.9
7th
Rushing Allowed
128.9
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
34%
29th
4th Down
29%
30th
Red Zone
48%
29th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
14th
4th Down
40%
11th
Red Zone
47%
6th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
18th
Created
1.9
4th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
15th
Created
1.4
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
22nd
Created
0.5
24th