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  4. 2011
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
152416th
Point Diff / Game
+6.55th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1195th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
IND logo
IND
W
34-07
+27
-9
W
57
2
MIA logo
MIA@
W
23-13
+10
-3
W
10
3
NO logo
NO@
L
33-40
-7
+3.5
L
-0
4
PIT logo
PIT
W
17-10
+7
-4
W
19
5
OAK logo
OAK
L
20-25
-5
-4.5
L
-47
6
BAL logo
BAL@
L
14-29
-15
+7
L
-12
7
TEN logo
TEN@
W
41-07
+34
+2.5
W
21
8
JAX logo
JAX
W
24-14
+10
-10
P
-1
9
CLE logo
CLE
W
30-12
+18
-10.5
W
25
10
TB logo
TB@
W
37-09
+28
-4
W
-69
11BYE WEEK
12
JAX logo
JAX@
W
20-13
+7
-6.5
W
-30
13
ATL logo
ATL
W
17-10
+7
+2
W
15
14
CIN logo
CIN@
W
20-19
+1
+2.5
W
20
15
CAR logo
CAR
L
13-28
-15
-5
L
-11
16
IND logo
IND@
L
16-19
-3
-7
L
-6
17
TEN logo
TEN
L
22-23
-1
+2.5
W
-18
18
CIN logo
CIN
W
31-10
+21
-4
W
18
19
BAL logo
BAL@
L
13-20
-7
+7.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.00
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.10
10th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
11th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.12
2nd
EPA / Pass
-0.18
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.13
4th
Sack EPA
-3.43
12th
Turnover EPA
-5.97
20th
Point Differential
+6.5
5th
Points For
23.6
11th
Points Against
17.1
4th
Total Yards
367.2
13th
Passing Yards
165.4
25th
Rushing Yards
153.7
2nd
Total Yards Allowed
283.4
2nd
Passing Allowed
174.2
11th
Rushing Allowed
94.4
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
9th
4th Down
25%
30th
Red Zone
48%
22nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
13th
4th Down
38%
10th
Red Zone
48%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
5th
Created
1.7
15th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
4th
Created
1.1
12th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
20th
Created
0.6
22nd