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  4. 2019
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
149216th
Point Diff / Game
-1.320th
Net EPA / Play
-0.02219th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO@
L
28-30
-2
+7
W
7
2
JAX logo
JAX
W
13-12
+1
-7
L
-33
3
LAC logo
LAC@
W
27-20
+7
+3
W
45
4
CAR logo
CAR
L
10-16
-6
-5.5
L
-33
5
ATL logo
ATL
W
53-32
+21
-4
W
34
6
KC logo
KC@
W
31-24
+7
+3.5
W
37
7
IND logo
IND@
L
23-30
-7
+1.5
L
-26
8
OAK logo
OAK
W
27-24
+3
-5.5
L
-9
9
JAX logo
JAX@
W
26-03
+23
+1
W
15
10BYE WEEK
11
BAL logo
BAL@
L
07-41
-34
+4.5
L
-40
12
IND logo
IND
W
20-17
+3
-3.5
L
3
13
NE logo
NE
W
28-22
+6
+3.5
W
16
14
DEN logo
DEN
L
24-38
-14
-8
L
-12
15
TEN logo
TEN@
W
24-21
+3
+3
W
5
16
TB logo
TB@
W
23-20
+3
-3
P
-118
17
TEN logo
TEN
L
14-35
-21
+9.5
L
84
18
BUF logo
BUF
W
22-19
+3
-2.5
W
-13
19
KC logo
KC@
L
31-51
-20
+10
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
8th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
24th
Sack EPA
-5.28
23rd
Turnover EPA
-5.49
18th
Point Differential
-1.3
20th
Points For
23.9
12th
Points Against
25.3
23rd
Total Yards
366.7
11th
Passing Yards
202.6
17th
Rushing Yards
124.8
9th
Total Yards Allowed
393.0
28th
Passing Allowed
228.1
25th
Rushing Allowed
123.7
24th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
8th
4th Down
45%
18th
Red Zone
63%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
48%
31st
4th Down
41%
9th
Red Zone
73%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
18th
Created
1.3
17th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
18th
Created
0.7
23rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
17th
Created
0.7
8th