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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
159010th
Point Diff / Game
+4.78th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0828th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CIN logo
CIN
L
23-34
-11
+1
L
-32
2
WAS logo
WAS@
W
21-09
+12
+6
W
13
3
PHI logo
PHI@
L
16-20
-4
+6.5
W
39
4
HOU logo
HOU
L
34-37
-3
+1
L
-14
5
NE logo
NE@
L
24-38
-14
+11
L
-17
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
34-42
-8
+2.5
L
-10
7
BUF logo
BUF
W
37-05
+32
-7
W
20
8
OAK logo
OAK@
W
42-28
+14
-3.5
W
57
9BYE WEEK
10
JAX logo
JAX
W
29-26
+3
-3
P
5
11
TEN logo
TEN
W
38-10
+28
-1.5
W
18
12
MIA logo
MIA
W
27-24
+3
-9
L
-2
13
JAX logo
JAX@
L
00-06
-6
-4.5
L
-20
14
HOU logo
HOU@
W
24-21
+3
+4
W
8
15
DAL logo
DAL
W
23-00
+23
-3
W
17
16
NYG logo
NYG
W
28-27
+1
-9.5
L
-4
17
TEN logo
TEN@
W
33-17
+16
-5
W
49
18
HOU logo
HOU@
W
21-07
+14
+1.5
W
15
19
KC logo
KC@
L
13-31
-18
+4.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.10
10th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
18th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
8th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
14th
Sack EPA
-2.58
4th
Turnover EPA
-6.95
9th
Point Differential
+4.7
8th
Points For
25.9
8th
Points Against
21.2
8th
Total Yards
381.9
7th
Passing Yards
176.3
24th
Rushing Yards
111.6
16th
Total Yards Allowed
343.7
11th
Passing Allowed
160.7
4th
Rushing Allowed
106.2
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
48%
1st
4th Down
50%
19th
Red Zone
65%
7th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
50%
7th
Red Zone
55%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
22nd
Created
1.5
12th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
22nd
Created
0.9
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
21st
Created
0.6
12th