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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2020 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-6
nfelo Rating
15969th
Point Diff / Game
+5.18th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1056th

2020 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
JAX logo
JAX@
L
20-27
-7
-7
L
-4
2
MIN logo
MIN
W
28-11
+17
-3.5
W
31
3
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
36-07
+29
-11.5
W
49
4
CHI logo
CHI@
W
19-11
+8
-3.5
W
4
5
CLE logo
CLE@
L
23-32
-9
+1
L
-47
6
CIN logo
CIN
W
31-27
+4
-7.5
L
3
7BYE WEEK
8
DET logo
DET@
W
41-21
+20
-3
W
13
9
BAL logo
BAL
L
10-24
-14
+1
L
-10
10
TEN logo
TEN@
W
34-17
+17
-1
W
31
11
GB logo
GB
W
34-31
+3
-1.5
W
19
12
TEN logo
TEN
L
26-45
-19
-3
L
-16
13
HOU logo
HOU@
W
26-20
+6
-3
W
6
14
OAK logo
OAK@
W
44-27
+17
-2.5
W
12
15
HOU logo
HOU
W
27-20
+7
-7.5
L
1
16
PIT logo
PIT@
L
24-28
-4
-1
L
-19
17
JAX logo
JAX
W
28-14
+14
-15.5
L
-5
18
BUF logo
BUF@
L
24-27
-3
+7
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.07
9th
EPA / Pass
+0.17
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
15th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
8th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
12th
Sack EPA
-2.20
2nd
Turnover EPA
-4.28
28th
Point Differential
+5.1
8th
Points For
27.9
8th
Points Against
22.9
11th
Total Yards
384.1
7th
Passing Yards
187.3
22nd
Rushing Yards
127.2
9th
Total Yards Allowed
336.2
9th
Passing Allowed
224.8
25th
Rushing Allowed
91.1
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
18th
4th Down
60%
10th
Red Zone
57%
20th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
18th
4th Down
43%
6th
Red Zone
63%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
3rd
Created
1.5
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
10th
Created
0.9
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
1st
Created
0.6
11th