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Jacksonville Jaguars

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
134029th
Point Diff / Game
-6.126th
Net EPA / Play
-0.10825th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC
L
26-40
-14
+3.5
L
-156
2
HOU logo
HOU@
L
12-13
-1
+7
W
38
3
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-07
+13
+1.5
W
58
4
DEN logo
DEN@
W
26-24
+2
+2.5
W
13
5
CAR logo
CAR@
L
27-34
-7
+3
L
13
6
NO logo
NO
L
06-13
-7
-2.5
L
-12
7
CIN logo
CIN@
W
27-17
+10
-4.5
W
41
8
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
29-15
+14
-7
W
18
9
HOU logo
HOU
L
03-26
-23
-1
L
54
10BYE WEEK
11
IND logo
IND@
L
13-33
-20
+2.5
L
-52
12
TEN logo
TEN@
L
20-42
-22
+4.5
L
-28
13
TB logo
TB
L
11-28
-17
+3
L
-121
14
LAC logo
LAC
L
10-45
-35
+3.5
L
-8
15
OAK logo
OAK@
W
20-16
+4
+7
W
13
16
ATL logo
ATL@
L
12-24
-12
+7.5
L
-8
17
IND logo
IND
W
38-20
+18
+5.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.05
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.07
17th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
23rd
EPA / Rush
+0.01
28th
Sack EPA
-5.54
24th
Turnover EPA
-5.59
17th
Point Differential
-6.1
26th
Points For
18.8
26th
Points Against
24.8
21st
Total Yards
342.3
19th
Passing Yards
222.8
9th
Rushing Yards
106.8
17th
Total Yards Allowed
375.7
25th
Passing Allowed
193.7
12th
Rushing Allowed
139.4
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
26th
4th Down
48%
15th
Red Zone
40%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
23rd
4th Down
45%
12th
Red Zone
57%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
19th
Created
1.1
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
7th
Created
0.6
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
30th
Created
0.4
25th