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NE logo

New England Patriots

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
16503rd
Point Diff / Game
+8.62nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1492nd

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT
W
28-21
+7
-7
P
2
2
BUF logo
BUF@
W
40-32
+8
+1.5
W
15
3
JAX logo
JAX
W
51-17
+34
-14
W
14
4BYE WEEK
5
DAL logo
DAL@
W
30-06
+24
-9
W
10
6
IND logo
IND@
W
34-27
+7
-8.5
L
6
7
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
30-23
+7
-7
P
-5
8
MIA logo
MIA
W
36-07
+29
-8
W
15
9
WAS logo
WAS
W
27-10
+17
-14
W
4
10
NYG logo
NYG@
W
27-26
+1
-7
L
-13
11
BUF logo
BUF
W
20-13
+7
-7
P
-20
12
DEN logo
DEN@
L
24-30
-6
-2.5
L
-10
13
PHI logo
PHI
L
28-35
-7
-9.5
L
-26
14
HOU logo
HOU@
W
27-06
+21
-4.5
W
22
15
TEN logo
TEN
W
33-16
+17
-14.5
W
-0
16
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
20-26
-6
-2.5
L
-15
17
MIA logo
MIA@
L
10-20
-10
-10
L
-22
18BYE WEEK
19
KC logo
KC
W
27-20
+7
-6
W
26
20
DEN logo
DEN@
L
18-20
-2
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.08
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.16
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
6th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.07
10th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
7th
Sack EPA
-3.81
12th
Turnover EPA
-3.55
31st
Point Differential
+8.6
2nd
Points For
28.3
3rd
Points Against
19.7
8th
Total Yards
370.4
9th
Passing Yards
254.4
5th
Rushing Yards
82.6
32nd
Total Yards Allowed
336.4
8th
Passing Allowed
235.6
28th
Rushing Allowed
100.8
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
15th
4th Down
58%
7th
Red Zone
65%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
16th
4th Down
45%
12th
Red Zone
55%
14th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
1st
Created
1.4
20th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
2nd
Created
0.7
24th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
2nd
Created
0.7
11th