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  4. 2024
NE logo

New England Patriots

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-13
nfelo Rating
126332nd
Point Diff / Game
-7.528th
Net EPA / Play
-0.15028th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CIN logo
CIN@
W
16-10
+6
+7.5
W
7
2
SEA logo
SEA
L
20-23
-3
+3
P
-24
3
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
03-24
-21
+6.5
L
-38
4
SF logo
SF@
L
13-30
-17
+10.5
L
-16
5
MIA logo
MIA
L
10-15
-5
+2
L
4
6
HOU logo
HOU
L
21-41
-20
+6.5
L
-29
7
JAX logo
JAX@
L
16-32
-16
+7
L
-9
8
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
25-22
+3
+7
W
8
9
TEN logo
TEN@
L
17-20
-3
+3.5
W
16
10
CHI logo
CHI@
W
19-03
+16
+6.5
W
12
11
LAR logo
LAR
L
22-28
-6
+4
L
-6
12
MIA logo
MIA@
L
15-34
-19
+7.5
L
-14
13
IND logo
IND
L
24-25
-1
+2.5
W
5
14BYE WEEK
15
ARI logo
ARI@
L
17-30
-13
+6
L
-3
16
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-24
-3
+14
W
25
17
LAC logo
LAC
L
07-40
-33
+6
L
-132
18
BUF logo
BUF
W
23-16
+7
+3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.06
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
18th
Sack EPA
-6.10
28th
Turnover EPA
-6.48
9th
Point Differential
-7.5
28th
Points For
17.0
30th
Points Against
24.5
21st
Total Yards
292.2
31st
Passing Yards
176.4
22nd
Rushing Yards
115.8
14th
Total Yards Allowed
343.1
21st
Passing Allowed
138.6
1st
Rushing Allowed
131.5
22nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
29th
4th Down
58%
14th
Red Zone
47%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
27th
4th Down
52%
11th
Red Zone
63%
26th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
23rd
Created
0.6
31st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
11th
Created
0.4
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
29th
Created
0.2
30th