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TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2017 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
144220th
Point Diff / Game
-2.918th
Net EPA / Play
-0.05017th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
2
CHI logo
CHI
W
29-07
+22
-7
W
21
3
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-34
-17
-1
L
-21
4
NYG logo
NYG
W
25-23
+2
-2.5
L
6
5
NE logo
NE
L
14-19
-5
+4
L
-3
6
ARI logo
ARI@
L
33-38
-5
-2.5
L
-11
7
BUF logo
BUF@
L
27-30
-3
+3
P
17
8
CAR logo
CAR
L
03-17
-14
-1
L
-18
9
NO logo
NO@
L
10-30
-20
+7
L
-51
10
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
15-10
+5
-1
W
0
11
MIA logo
MIA@
W
30-20
+10
-1.5
W
44
12
ATL logo
ATL@
L
20-34
-14
+10
L
-5
13
GB logo
GB@
L
20-26
-6
+3
L
-26
14
DET logo
DET
L
21-24
-3
-15
15
ATL logo
ATL
L
21-24
-3
+7
W
15
16
CAR logo
CAR@
L
19-22
-3
+10
W
9
17
NO logo
NO
W
31-24
+7
+6
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.02
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
18th
Sack EPA
-5.21
26th
Turnover EPA
-6.82
8th
Point Differential
-2.9
18th
Points For
20.9
18th
Points Against
23.9
22nd
Total Yards
363.8
7th
Passing Yards
273.0
1st
Rushing Yards
90.8
27th
Total Yards Allowed
378.1
32nd
Passing Allowed
163.1
3rd
Rushing Allowed
117.5
23rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
4th
4th Down
50%
13th
Red Zone
49%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
48%
32nd
4th Down
22%
1st
Red Zone
55%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
30th
Created
1.4
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
20th
Created
0.8
15th

Fumbles

Lost
1.0
32nd
Created
0.6
9th