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  4. 2021
TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-5
nfelo Rating
17044th
Point Diff / Game
+9.03rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1603rd

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
DAL logo
DAL
W
31-29
+2
-9
L
-0
2
ATL logo
ATL
W
48-25
+23
-13
W
25
3
LAR logo
LAR@
L
24-34
-10
1
4
NE logo
NE@
W
19-17
+2
-7
L
-9
5
MIA logo
MIA
W
45-17
+28
-11
W
34
6
PHI logo
PHI@
W
28-22
+6
-7
L
-3
7
CHI logo
CHI
W
38-03
+35
-11.5
W
10
8
NO logo
NO@
L
27-36
-9
-3.5
L
-9
9BYE WEEK
10
WAS logo
WAS@
L
19-29
-10
-10
L
-21
11
NYG logo
NYG
W
30-10
+20
-11
W
6
12
IND logo
IND@
W
38-31
+7
-3
W
-1
13
ATL logo
ATL@
W
30-17
+13
-11
W
10
14
BUF logo
BUF
W
33-27
+6
-3.5
W
14
15
NO logo
NO
L
00-09
-9
-12
L
-29
16
CAR logo
CAR@
W
32-06
+26
-11
W
17
17
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
28-24
+4
-13
L
-15
18
CAR logo
CAR
W
41-17
+24
-10.5
W
15
19
PHI logo
PHI
W
31-15
+16
-7.5
W
4
20
LAR logo
LAR
L
27-30
-3
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.08
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
11th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
4th
EPA / Pass
-0.08
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
3rd
Sack EPA
-2.92
2nd
Turnover EPA
-4.17
29th
Point Differential
+9.0
3rd
Points For
29.9
2nd
Points Against
20.9
7th
Total Yards
400.6
3rd
Passing Yards
213.6
9th
Rushing Yards
96.4
26th
Total Yards Allowed
337.3
15th
Passing Allowed
245.5
31st
Rushing Allowed
91.7
3rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
5th
4th Down
52%
17th
Red Zone
66%
1st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
10th
4th Down
45%
8th
Red Zone
52%
6th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
12th
Created
1.8
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
9th
Created
1.0
8th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
19th
Created
0.8
4th