SF49ers
6-4
41
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
022
ARICardinals
3-6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
13
12
10
6
41
Cardinals
7
3
0
12
22
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
488
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
5.3
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.09
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
47/58(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.11
Rushing Yards
95
36
Rush Attempts
25
15
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.15
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-2.34
--
Penalties
1
17
Penalty Yards
--
130
Penalty EPA
--
-12.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+30.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-56.0
Home QB Adjustment
-56.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-56.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
8
21
EPA / Pass
10
21
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
3
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
17
4
RZ Efficiency
11
18
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
25
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
27
23
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U