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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
6-4
41
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
22
ARICardinals
3-6
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
13
12
10
6
41
Cardinals
7
3
0
12
22

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
281
488
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
5.3
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.09
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
47/58(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.11
Rushing Yards
95
36
Rush Attempts
25
15
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.15
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-2.34
--
Penalties
1
17
Penalty Yards
--
130
Penalty EPA
--
-12.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+31.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-56.0
Home QB Adjustment
-56.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
10/27
6.9
89
11/10
3.8
74
11/17
1.6
61
12/01
-4.7
18
12/08
7.0
90
12/12
-10.5
2
12/22
2.6
66
12/30
7.0
90
09/07
2.3
66
09/28
-0.3
47
J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-56.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
-2.6
30
09/08
-2.6
30
09/15
-4.7
18
09/19
-7.3
7
09/29
-8.3
4
10/06
-4.6
19
10/12
2.1
65
10/19
0.1
52
11/03
-0.2
49
11/09
-1.6
39

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
25

EPA

EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
22
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
13
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6

EPA

EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
26
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
22
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
4
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
W
O
09/21
1
W
L
U
09/28
-5
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/12
-11
L
L
O
10/19
10
W
W
U
10/26
-11
L
L
U
11/02
10
W
W
O
11/09
-16
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
23
W
W
O
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
L
O
09/21
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-1
L
L
O
10/12
-4
L
W
O
10/19
-4
L
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/09
-22
L
L
O