SF49ers
3-1
+8.5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0-8.5
LARRams
3-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+57.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-48.4
Market Regression
+62.1
Final Difference
193.0
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-48.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
11
5
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
18
6
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
26
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U