SF49ers
3-1
26
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
023
LARRams
3-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
7
10
3
3
3
26
Rams
0
7
7
9
0
23
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
456
Total Plays
83
64
Yards / Play
4.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.09
Passing Yards
333
378
Comp/Att
33/49(67%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.32
Rushing Yards
74
78
Rush Attempts
33
16
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.67
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
27
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
39%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-11.69
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-1.88
-1.96
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
44
36
Penalty EPA
-5.92
-4.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
49ers+7.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,568
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+57.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.8
Away QB Adjustment
-48.4
Market Regression
+43.6
Final Difference
174.6
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-48.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
27
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
24
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U