SF49ers
-
17
TBD
Lumen Field
67°F
6 mph
13
SEASeahawks
-
TBD
Lumen Field
67°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
0
10
17
Seahawks
0
10
0
3
13
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
230
Total Plays
72
50
Yards / Play
5.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.11
Passing Yards
265
146
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.44
Rushing Yards
119
84
Rush Attempts
36
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-7.92
-8.56
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-12
-4
Sack EPA
-1.81
-4.61
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
61
30
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-3.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model51.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.6
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
-10.3
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
11
16
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
16
5
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U