CHIBears
4-3
47
TBD
Paycor Stadium
50°F
6 mph
42
CINBengals
3-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
50°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
10
14
16
47
Bengals
10
10
7
15
42
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
576
497
Total Plays
77
66
Yards / Play
7.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.33
Passing Yards
293
451
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.35
Rushing Yards
283
46
Rush Attempts
37
15
Yards / Rush
7.6
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.43
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
26
Passing 1st downs
17
22
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
57%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.00
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-2.50
-8.70
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
43
49
Penalty EPA
-4.18
-10.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
Bengals+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+64.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-62.9
Home QB Adjustment
-59.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-10.2
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-59.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
4
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
26
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
14
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U