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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ saints week 18, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
8-8
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
21
NOSaints
12-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
6
9
Saints
7
0
7
7
21

Spread

NO logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
239
385
Total Plays
49
75
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.03
Passing Yards
191
262
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.21
Rushing Yards
48
123
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
11
27
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
10%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.11
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-3
Sack EPA
-2.27
-6.11
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-7.99
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,753
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
Value
Ptile
12/29
-2.4
35
09/13
3.0
67
09/20
-6.1
10
09/27
-0.9
38
11/29
-2.7
25
12/06
0.7
49
12/13
3.3
68
12/20
-0.1
45
12/27
2.2
60
01/03
2.9
66
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
09/27
7.9
91
10/04
-1.2
36
10/12
3.1
68
10/25
8.1
92
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
7.9
91
11/15
-6.0
11
12/20
-1.6
33
12/25
-1.2
36
01/03
1.3
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3

EPA

EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
20
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
6
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
5
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-16
L
L
O
12/06
-4
L
L
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
O
12/27
24
W
W
O
01/03
-19
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
35
W
W
U
11/15
14
W
W
U
11/22
15
W
W
U
11/29
28
W
W
U
12/06
5
W
W
U
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
L
O
12/25
19
W
W
O
01/03
26
W
W
U