CHIBears
8-8
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
12-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
6
9
Saints
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
385
Total Plays
49
75
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.03
Passing Yards
191
262
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.21
Rushing Yards
48
123
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
27
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
10%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.11
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-3
Sack EPA
-2.27
-6.11
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-7.99
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,754
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
22
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
17
Interceptions / Game
6
28
Fumbles / Game
26
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
5
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U