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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ jets week 3, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
0-2
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0
12
NYJJets
1-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
6
7
0
27
Jets
6
3
3
0
12

Spread

CIN logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
330
328
Total Plays
66
76
Yards / Play
5.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.28
Passing Yards
261
252
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.45
Rushing Yards
69
76
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-16.30
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-33
Sack EPA
-2.08
-12.23
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
55
Penalty EPA
-3.75
-8.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+35.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.7
Market Regression
-1.3
Final Difference
-123.8
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
12/12
1.9
67
12/19
-1.5
42
12/26
15.2
99
01/02
9.6
96
01/15
0.9
60
01/22
-6.1
14
01/30
-0.3
51
02/13
-3.0
31
09/11
-5.2
16
09/18
-2.2
35
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Value
Ptile
10/13
-4.6
22
10/17
-9.3
6
10/27
-3.7
27
10/11
-4.4
17
10/18
-10.4
3
11/09
4.7
77
11/22
-3.3
23
11/21
1.3
63
09/11
-1.5
43
09/18
6.5
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Bengals logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
18
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
32
8
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jets logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5

EPA

EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
22
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
12
RZ Efficiency
31
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
5
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
3
W
W
O
01/09
-5
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
U
01/22
3
W
W
U
01/30
3
W
W
U
02/13
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-3
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-7
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-15
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-7
L
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
-4
L
W
O
01/09
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-15
L
L
U
09/18
1
W
W
O