CINBengals
2-3
18
TBD
Lambeau Field
64°F
14 mph
27
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
64°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
7
11
18
Packers
0
10
0
17
27
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
409
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
4.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.27
Passing Yards
215
256
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.28
Rushing Yards
55
153
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.62
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-3
Sack EPA
-1.78
-0.80
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
17
--
Penalty EPA
-1.55
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+292
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+73.2
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+100.1
Home QB Adjustment
+7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-92.5
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-92.5
J. Love
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Packers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
32
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
16
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
25
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
4-5-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U