CINBengals
2-0
21
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
80°F
3 mph
31
CARPanthers
1-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
80°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
7
0
21
Panthers
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
377
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
330
147
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.17
Rushing Yards
66
230
Rush Attempts
13
41
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.20
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-22
-3
Sack EPA
-4.11
-1.02
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
36
17
Penalty EPA
-3.75
-2.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+76.4
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
19
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Panthers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
14
29
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
19
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
32
4th Down Efficiency
26
26
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U