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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ steelers week 3, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
1-1
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
9 mph
10
PITSteelers
1-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
10
0
24
Steelers
0
7
0
3
10

Spread

CIN logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
268
342
Total Plays
42
77
Yards / Play
6.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
297
Comp/Att
14/18(78%)
38/58(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.15
Rushing Yards
96
45
Rush Attempts
24
15
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
19
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-9.31
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-5.26
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
89
73
Penalty EPA
-11.37
-8.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model64.1%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.4%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+38.9
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
100.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
09/27
-1.9
29
10/04
1.4
53
10/11
-9.8
4
10/18
0.9
51
10/25
9.4
95
11/01
4.1
75
11/15
-2.8
25
11/22
-1.9
30
09/12
-0.3
51
09/19
-8.0
8
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
11/15
6.8
87
11/22
1.8
57
12/02
3.1
67
12/07
2.9
66
12/13
-4.2
18
12/21
-6.4
10
12/27
7.1
89
01/10
7.3
90
09/12
-3.1
30
09/19
-1.0
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
21
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-26
L
L
O
11/22
-11
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
U
12/06
-12
L
L
U
12/13
-23
L
L
U
12/21
10
W
W
O
12/27
6
W
W
O
01/03
-35
L
L
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/19
-3
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
24
W
W
U
12/02
5
W
L
U
12/07
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-11
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
O
01/03
-2
L
W
O
01/10
-11
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-9
L
L
U