CINBengals
1-1
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
9 mph
10
PITSteelers
1-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
67°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
10
0
24
Steelers
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
268
342
Total Plays
42
77
Yards / Play
6.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
297
Comp/Att
14/18(78%)
38/58(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.15
Rushing Yards
96
45
Rush Attempts
24
15
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
19
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.33
-9.31
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-5.26
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
89
73
Penalty EPA
-11.37
-8.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers-2.5
Expected Value
+14.4%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
-16.3
Final Difference
101.7
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
14
27
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
11
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
17
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
6
8
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U