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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ steelers week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
3-6
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
17 mph
34
PITSteelers
5-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
0
3
3
12
Steelers
7
3
4
8
22

Spread

PIT logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
297
343
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.20
Passing Yards
192
232
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.39
Rushing Yards
105
111
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.35
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-1.47
-1.75
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
67
76
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-7.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+5.1
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-33.2
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-48.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
122.0
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-48.1
Value
Ptile
12/29
0.3
50
01/05
-3.6
24
09/07
-1.1
41
09/14
-3.9
24
09/21
-6.8
8
09/28
-11.6
1
10/12
2.8
71
10/16
6.0
89
10/26
4.9
83
11/02
6.0
89
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
01/05
2.7
67
09/07
4.0
77
09/14
-7.2
7
09/21
-1.2
40
09/28
1.1
58
10/12
4.8
83
10/16
3.4
75
10/26
-0.1
50
11/02
-1.7
38
11/09
-8.2
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bengals logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
10
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
4
6
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Steelers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
31
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32

EPA

EPA / Play
16
29
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
8
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
13
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/04
2
W
L
U
09/07
1
W
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
O
09/21
-38
L
L
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/05
-13
L
L
O
10/12
-9
L
W
O
10/16
2
W
W
O
10/26
-1
L
L
O
11/02
-5
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
-14
L
L
U
09/07
2
W
L
O
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O
10/26
-10
L
L
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U