CINBengals
3-6
12
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
17 mph
34
PITSteelers
5-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
0
3
3
12
Steelers
7
3
4
8
22
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
343
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.20
Passing Yards
192
232
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.39
Rushing Yards
105
111
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.35
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-1.47
-1.75
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
67
76
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-7.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+5.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.9
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-48.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
121.9
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-48.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
16
EPA / Pass
26
17
EPA / Rush
5
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
14
6
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
28
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
10
32
EPA / Pass
14
32
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
16
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
6
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U