DENBroncos
4-8
38
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
8-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
8
17
7
0
32
Texans
0
3
7
14
24
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
414
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
7.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.06
Passing Yards
301
280
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
28/50(56%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.28
Rushing Yards
90
134
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
63%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.72
-15.66
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.55
-3.87
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-6.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+56.8
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.6
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-3.8
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24
EPA
EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
18
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
9
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U