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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ texans week 14, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
4-8
38
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
24
HOUTexans
8-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
8
17
7
0
32
Texans
0
3
7
14
24

Spread

DEN logo
+8

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
391
414
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
7.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.06
Passing Yards
301
280
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
28/50(56%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.28
Rushing Yards
90
134
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
63%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.72
-15.66
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.55
-3.87
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-6.44

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+56.8
Base HFA
+48.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.6
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
194.1
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
12/01
-0.4
49
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
09/22
7.8
93
09/29
-5.3
18
10/06
18.4
100
10/13
7.2
90
10/20
-1.1
46
10/27
4.3
80
11/03
5.9
86
11/17
-10.0
4
11/21
1.8
66
12/01
4.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Texans Defense
Broncos logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24

EPA

EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
18
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
31
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
27
32
Texans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Texans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16

EPA

EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
6
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
18
25
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
15
RZ Efficiency
9
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-11
L
L
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
16
W
W
U
10/17
-24
L
L
U
10/27
-2
L
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/17
-4
L
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
-6
L
L
U
10/06
21
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
L
U
11/03
23
W
W
U
11/17
-34
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
12/01
6
W
W
O