CLEBrowns
2-1
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
023
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
3
7
20
Falcons
10
0
0
13
23
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
333
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
226
131
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
7/19(37%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.27
Rushing Yards
177
202
Rush Attempts
35
35
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
13
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.82
-4.50
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-1.11
-1.54
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-11.91
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+52.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-58.4
Market Regression
-0.4
Final Difference
-9.1
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-58.4
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
15
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
8
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U