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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ falcons week 4, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-1
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
23
ATLFalcons
1-2
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
3
7
20
Falcons
10
0
0
13
23

Spread

ATL logo
+1

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
403
333
Total Plays
71
55
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
226
131
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
7/19(37%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.27
Rushing Yards
177
202
Rush Attempts
35
35
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
13
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.82
-4.50
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-1.11
-1.54
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
51
--
Penalty EPA
-11.91
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+52.6
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-58.4
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
-0.5
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-58.4
Value
Ptile
12/22
-2.9
32
12/29
-6.5
14
09/26
1.1
61
10/03
-1.5
42
10/10
-0.7
48
11/07
-7.8
9
11/11
-7.2
11
09/11
-3.2
27
09/18
2.3
70
09/22
2.7
73
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
12/22
-3.9
22
09/08
1.2
62
09/15
-2.7
33
09/19
-6.8
13
09/29
5.5
85
10/06
-5.2
19
10/13
-14.3
1
09/11
6.4
90
09/18
-3.4
26
09/25
-2.2
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Browns logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
15
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
1
Rushing Yards / Game
5
23

EPA

EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
20
31
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Falcons logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
15
19
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
8
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
-6
L
L
U
12/12
2
W
L
O
12/20
-2
L
W
U
12/25
-2
L
W
U
01/03
-12
L
L
U
01/09
5
W
L
U
09/11
2
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
L
O
09/22
12
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
8
W
W
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U
12/26
4
W
L
U
01/02
-14
L
P
U
01/09
-10
L
L
O
09/11
-1
L
W
O
09/18
-4
L
W
O
09/25
4
W
W
O