CLEBrowns
4-8
3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
31°F
6 mph
14
PITSteelers
9-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
31°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
0
3
Steelers
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
416
Total Plays
69
53
Yards / Play
4.4
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.03
Passing Yards
206
269
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
11.7
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.25
Rushing Yards
98
147
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
44%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-9.21
-12.07
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-11
Sack EPA
-4.14
-2.41
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
54
97
Penalty EPA
-8.85
-10.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
29
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
24
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
29
15
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
18
30
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U