TBBuccaneers
4-5
45
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
48°F
15 mph
17
PHIEagles
4-5
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
48°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
21
7
4
39
Eagles
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
521
383
Total Plays
72
72
Yards / Play
7.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.38
-0.09
Passing Yards
238
247
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.23
Rushing Yards
283
136
Rush Attempts
42
28
Yards / Rush
6.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
63%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
83%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.95
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-1.52
-4.08
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
82
25
Penalty EPA
-7.40
-3.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-55.7
Home QB Adjustment
-47.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.5
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.5
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-47.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
24
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
13
16
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
20
10
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
23
31
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
30
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U