TBBuccaneers
4-10
19
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
55°F
6 mph
22
CARPanthers
10-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
6
7
3
19
Panthers
3
9
3
7
22
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
392
255
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
6.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.02
Passing Yards
326
140
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
12.1
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.40
Rushing Yards
66
115
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
55%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
17%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-14.92
-4.59
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-41
-20
Sack EPA
-15.49
-5.54
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
72
50
Penalty EPA
-14.98
-4.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+55.9
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
223.1
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
7
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
15
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U