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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ panthers week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-10
19
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
55°F
6 mph
22
CARPanthers
10-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
55°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
6
7
3
19
Panthers
3
9
3
7
22

Spread

TB logo
+10

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
392
255
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
6.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.02
Passing Yards
326
140
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
12.1
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.40
Rushing Yards
66
115
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
55%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
17%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-14.92
-4.59
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-41
-20
Sack EPA
-15.49
-5.54
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
72
50
Penalty EPA
-14.98
-4.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
223.3
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
09/24
-0.1
50
10/01
6.3
89
10/05
0.9
58
10/15
-5.3
18
10/22
9.0
96
10/29
-7.3
11
11/05
-6.4
14
12/03
-2.9
33
12/10
-1.4
43
12/18
7.3
91
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Value
Ptile
10/08
6.6
90
10/12
-1.9
39
10/22
-6.1
15
10/29
-2.2
37
11/05
3.0
74
11/13
13.0
100
11/26
-4.5
22
12/03
3.4
78
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
7.6
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
7
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
23
12
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
23

EPA

EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
15
29
EPA / Rush
15
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
24
15
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
14
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
1
RZ Efficiency
21
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
-20
L
L
U
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/03
-6
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
3
W
W
O
10/12
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/03
-10
L
L
O
12/10
7
W
W
O
12/17
7
W
W
O