TBBuccaneers
12-5
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
13-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
13
7
10
30
Saints
6
7
7
0
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
294
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
4.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.26
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.61
Rushing Yards
127
104
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
47%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-23.50
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-10
--
Sack EPA
-2.50
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
62
34
Penalty EPA
-9.60
-1.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model60.4%
Spread Pick
Saints-2.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,757
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+6.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-21.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+22.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
73.0
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
3
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
15
5
Fumbles / Game
4
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
11
23
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
13
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U