LACChargers
1-1
22
TBD
New Era Field
72°F
24 mph
10
BUFBills
2-0
TBD
New Era Field
72°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
6
7
0
20
Bills
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
292
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
5.3
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.08
Passing Yards
250
205
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.15
Rushing Yards
83
87
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
38%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-33
Sack EPA
-3.11
-6.34
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
44
110
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-13.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-12.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.9
Market Regression
+26.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
4
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
27
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
2
10
Turnover EPA / Game
23
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
14
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
25
23
EPA / Pass
21
21
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
11
28
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U