LACChargers
2-3
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
10 mph
31
KCChiefs
5-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
14
0
0
17
Chiefs
3
21
0
7
31
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
483
Total Plays
61
64
Yards / Play
5.9
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.26
Passing Yards
219
415
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
32/42(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.41
Rushing Yards
139
68
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
11
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.74
-5.33
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-40
-9
Sack EPA
-8.53
-2.15
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
43
43
Penalty EPA
-5.16
-3.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+31.0
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
31
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
19
RZ Efficiency
13
8
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
8
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
13
24
EPA / Rush
16
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U