LACChargers
3-4
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
4 mph
6
NYJJets
4-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
8
3
0
10
21
Jets
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
191
270
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
3.4
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.40
Passing Yards
107
206
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
33/49(67%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.49
Rushing Yards
84
64
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
17
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-18.01
Sacks
5
8
Sack Yards
-29
-57
Sack EPA
-6.52
-23.34
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
39
40
Penalty EPA
-4.66
-7.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-34
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+20.1
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.3
Net QB Adjustment
-76.5
Home QB Adjustment
-69.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-43.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-69.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
31
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
32
24
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U