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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ vikings week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
0-2
28
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
24
MINVikings
0-2
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
7
7
7
28
Vikings
0
10
7
7
24

Spread

LAC logo
+0

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
475
475
Total Plays
64
78
Yards / Play
7.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.00
Passing Yards
445
345
Comp/Att
41/48(85%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.09
Rushing Yards
30
130
Rush Attempts
15
24
Yards / Rush
2.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.55
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
24
29
Passing 1st downs
22
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
7
3rd Down %
45%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.07
-8.66
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-22
Sack EPA
-2.15
-7.41
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
94
--
Penalty EPA
-16.81
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+58.9
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
+16.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+10.8
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
11/27
5.5
87
12/04
-3.9
24
12/11
4.4
83
12/18
-5.0
18
12/26
-4.4
21
01/01
5.3
86
01/08
4.6
83
01/14
-1.4
43
09/10
2.1
64
09/17
2.4
67
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Value
Ptile
11/24
8.8
94
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
5.6
88
12/17
1.0
59
12/24
4.2
82
01/01
-4.1
22
01/08
2.5
73
01/15
9.6
95
09/10
4.7
79
09/14
10.0
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Chargers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
31
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
3
19
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
16
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
23
32
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Vikings logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
17
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
29
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
1
W
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/18
3
W
P
U
12/26
17
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
W
O
01/14
-1
L
L
O
09/10
-2
L
L
O
09/17
-3
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
7
W
W
O
12/04
5
W
W
O
12/11
-11
L
L
O
12/17
3
W
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
01/01
-24
L
L
O
01/08
16
W
W
U
01/15
-7
L
L
O
09/10
-3
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
P
O