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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ cardinals week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
-
44
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
21
ARICardinals
-
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
9
14
7
44
Cardinals
0
7
0
14
21

Spread

KC logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
488
284
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
7.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.46
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
181
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.74
-0.03
Rushing Yards
128
103
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
33
18
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
63%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
6
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.35
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-5.95
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
49
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-6.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+43.3
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
-9.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-99.0
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Value
Ptile
11/21
-4.5
22
12/05
-3.1
30
12/12
2.2
69
12/16
9.3
95
12/26
5.9
87
01/02
6.6
90
01/08
6.2
89
01/16
13.1
99
01/23
18.4
100
01/30
-1.0
45
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
10/17
2.9
75
10/24
-1.4
43
10/28
-3.3
28
12/05
6.6
90
12/13
1.5
63
12/19
-5.3
18
12/25
7.3
92
01/02
7.8
93
01/09
-0.3
51
01/17
-8.2
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Chiefs logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
6
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Cardinals logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8

EPA

EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
15
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
11
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
39
W
W
O
12/16
6
W
W
O
12/26
26
W
W
O
01/02
-3
L
L
O
01/08
4
W
L
O
01/16
21
W
W
O
01/23
6
W
W
O
01/30
-3
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
14
W
W
O
11/14
-24
L
L
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
11
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U
12/25
-6
L
L
U
01/02
3
W
W
U
01/09
-8
L
L
O
01/17
-23
L
L
U