KCChiefs
-
44
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
021
ARICardinals
-
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
14
9
14
7
44
Cardinals
0
7
0
14
21
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
488
284
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
7.4
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.46
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
181
Comp/Att
30/39(77%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.74
-0.03
Rushing Yards
128
103
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
18
Passing 1st downs
22
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
63%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
6
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.35
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-26
Sack EPA
--
-5.95
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
49
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-6.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+6.5
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+43.4
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
-9.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-98.9
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
15
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U