KCChiefs
2-0
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
6
8
3
0
17
Colts
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
259
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.2
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.00
Passing Yards
259
177
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.11
Rushing Yards
58
82
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.09
+1.17
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-5
-45
Sack EPA
-1.21
-11.87
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
45
34
Penalty EPA
-4.53
-2.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+57.8
Base HFA
+37.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-35.8
Home QB Adjustment
-19.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
28
Yards / Game
1
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
6
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
7
24
Fumbles / Game
6
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
9
4th Down Efficiency
2
17
RZ Efficiency
2
32
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
18
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
32
21
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
23
24
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Colts
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U