INDColts
-
24
TBD
StubHub Center
77°F
10 mph
30
LACChargers
-
TBD
StubHub Center
77°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
0
6
10
8
0
24
Chargers
7
10
7
0
6
30
Spread
6
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
435
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
6.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.30
Passing Yards
173
310
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.23
Rushing Yards
205
125
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
6.0
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.64
-5.37
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-3.28
-6.20
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+25.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-27.6
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
28
RZ Efficiency
3
21
Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
18
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
29
6
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
10
RZ Efficiency
22
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U