INDColts
11-6
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
32°F
13 mph
31
KCChiefs
12-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
32°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
1
0
6
7
Chiefs
14
10
0
7
31
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
433
Total Plays
53
78
Yards / Play
5.0
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.06
Passing Yards
179
253
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.13
Rushing Yards
87
180
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
6.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
0%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
--
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.83
-5.37
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-24
-25
Sack EPA
-10.35
-7.96
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
70
54
Penalty EPA
-8.56
-5.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-4.5
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+105.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+31.4
Away QB Adjustment
+24.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
136.6
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+31.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
18
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
26
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Chiefs Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
8
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
1
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U