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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jaguars week 1, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
-
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
3 mph
27
JAXJaguars
-
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
0
3
20
Jaguars
0
14
3
10
27

Spread

JAX logo
+7

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
445
241
Total Plays
69
47
Yards / Play
6.4
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.22
Passing Yards
357
150
Comp/Att
36/46(78%)
19/20(95%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.42
Rushing Yards
88
91
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.73
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-23
Sack EPA
-1.98
-7.55
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
80
61
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-9.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.6
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
10/20
5.1
84
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.6
57
11/07
-12.0
2
11/18
-6.9
12
12/01
0.2
53
12/08
6.5
89
12/15
-2.5
34
12/22
-0.4
50
12/29
0.1
53
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
Value
Ptile
09/29
-3.5
28
10/06
6.8
89
10/13
-9.0
6
10/20
-1.9
39
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-5.2
18
12/08
-0.3
51
12/15
-1.1
46
12/22
-5.8
16
12/29
1.4
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Colts logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
15
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Jaguars logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2

EPA

EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
14
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
2
W
L
U
11/03
-2
L
L
O
11/10
-4
L
L
U
11/17
20
W
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
12/01
-14
L
L
O
12/08
-3
L
P
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/22
32
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-23
L
L
U
11/17
-20
L
L
O
11/24
-22
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
O