INDColts
-
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
3 mph
27
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
80°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
10
0
3
20
Jaguars
0
14
3
10
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
241
Total Plays
69
47
Yards / Play
6.4
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.22
Passing Yards
357
150
Comp/Att
36/46(78%)
19/20(95%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.42
Rushing Yards
88
91
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.73
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-6
-23
Sack EPA
-1.98
-7.55
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
80
61
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-9.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+7.0
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-136.7
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
15
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
20
24
Jaguars Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
11
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U