INDColts
10-4
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
6 mph
28
PITSteelers
11-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
37°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
14
3
0
24
Steelers
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
354
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.02
Passing Yards
238
332
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.06
Rushing Yards
127
22
Rush Attempts
28
14
Yards / Rush
4.5
1.6
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.87
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-32
-9
Sack EPA
-13.90
-1.88
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
83
49
Penalty EPA
-7.38
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
+6.2
Final Difference
-26.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
7
2
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
20
5
Steelers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
15
9
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
31
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U