INDColts
6-6
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
021
HOUTexans
9-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
17
7
0
24
Texans
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
315
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
6.6
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.01
Passing Yards
386
226
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.10
Rushing Yards
50
89
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.61
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-13
-41
Sack EPA
-3.66
-8.35
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
59
35
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+31.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
28
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U