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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
6-6
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
21
HOUTexans
9-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
17
7
0
24
Texans
7
0
7
7
21

Spread

IND logo
+4

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
436
315
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
6.6
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.01
Passing Yards
386
226
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.10
Rushing Yards
50
89
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
24
25
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.61
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-13
-41
Sack EPA
-3.66
-8.35
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
59
35
Penalty EPA
-9.43
-5.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+31.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+31.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
0.3
49
09/30
9.1
94
10/04
4.4
77
10/14
0.9
53
10/21
6.1
85
10/28
4.9
78
11/11
5.3
81
11/18
8.9
94
11/25
6.2
86
12/02
-2.9
28
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
3.9
74
10/07
7.0
89
10/14
-11.1
2
10/21
-2.7
29
10/25
10.0
96
11/04
2.1
63
11/18
-5.5
15
11/26
6.3
86
12/02
-0.6
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
8
5
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
7
31
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
9

EPA

EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
13
6
EPA / Rush
21
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
31
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
17
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
28
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
O
10/14
-8
L
L
O
10/21
32
W
W
U
10/28
14
W
W
O
11/11
3
W
P
O
11/18
28
W
W
U
11/25
3
W
L
U
12/02
-6
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/30
3
W
W
O
10/07
3
W
L
U
10/14
7
W
L
U
10/21
13
W
W
U
10/25
19
W
W
O
11/04
2
W
W
U
11/18
2
W
L
O
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/02
16
W
W
U