WASCommanders
7-6
41
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
1 mph
21
CHIBears
3-11
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
14
10
7
10
41
Bears
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
478
458
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
7.5
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
318
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.14
Rushing Yards
208
140
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.44
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
31
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
62%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
57%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-25.10
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.16
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
73
52
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-4.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+47.2
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-60.5
Home QB Adjustment
-44.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-44.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
12
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26
EPA
EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
28
RZ Efficiency
30
10
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
18
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U