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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ bears week 16, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
7-6
41
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
1 mph
21
CHIBears
3-11
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
14
10
7
10
41
Bears
0
14
0
7
21

Spread

WAS logo
-3

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
478
458
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
7.5
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
318
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.14
Rushing Yards
208
140
Rush Attempts
35
26
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.44
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
31
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
62%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
57%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-25.10
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-1.16
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
73
52
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-4.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-60.5
Home QB Adjustment
-44.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.4
59
10/16
1.4
59
10/23
5.9
86
10/30
7.7
92
11/13
4.6
82
11/20
7.0
90
11/24
13.6
99
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-1.1
40
12/19
2.0
64
M. Barkley headshot

M. Barkley

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-44.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.0
48
12/04
-3.6
22
12/11
-0.7
43
12/18
1.8
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Commanders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
12
2
Rushing Yards / Game
20
26

EPA

EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
6
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
16
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
28
RZ Efficiency
30
10
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bears logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
18
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24

EPA

EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
22
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
4
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
22
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
6
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
0
T
W
O
11/13
6
W
W
O
11/20
18
W
W
O
11/24
-5
L
W
O
12/04
-8
L
L
O
12/11
5
W
W
O
12/19
-11
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-6
L
L
O
10/16
-1
L
L
U
10/20
-16
L
L
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/13
-26
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
W
U
11/27
-6
L
W
O
12/04
20
W
W
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
W
O