WASCommanders
2-1
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
82°F
14 mph
29
KCChiefs
3-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
82°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
10
0
7
3
20
Chiefs
0
7
10
6
23
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
429
Total Plays
50
73
Yards / Play
6.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.21
Rushing Yards
111
168
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
36%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.02
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
--
-7.36
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-2.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+8.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
24
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
25
21
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Chiefs Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
6
22
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
13
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
5
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
5
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
29
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U