WASCommanders
6-4
23
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
5-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
6
10
23
Cowboys
7
3
14
7
31
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
404
Total Plays
61
69
Yards / Play
5.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.04
Passing Yards
251
258
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.25
Rushing Yards
80
146
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.50
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-31
Sack EPA
-4.23
-7.40
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-5.08
-0.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+90.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-91.1
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-91.1
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
12
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
7
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
22
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
19
21
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
7
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U